WW3 Risk Index
Composite 0–100 score measuring multi-theatre war escalation probability within 90 days. Updated every 6h. Current: 73/100 (Critical).
Strait of Hormuz
Strategic waterway between Iran and Oman. ~20% of global oil and ~30% of LNG transits daily. Current status: Contested (IRGC patrol denial active).
IRGC
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — Iran's elite paramilitary force. Responsible for missile strikes, drone operations, and Hormuz patrol denial in the 2026 Iran war.
Day Zero
February 28, 2026 — US-Israel launched coordinated airstrikes, Khamenei was killed, and the Iran War 2026 formally began.
Escalation Probability Matrix
Probabilistic model assigning % likelihoods to six conflict scenarios across four time horizons: 14-day, 30-day, 60-day, 90-day.
War-Risk Premium
Insurance surcharge for vessels in high-risk maritime zones. Hormuz premiums surged 920% in March–April 2026. Lloyd's suspended coverage.
ACLED
Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Primary data source for ConflictHub conflict event tracking and risk scoring.
Force Majeure
Legal clause suspending contract obligations due to extraordinary events. Qatar has warned of potential LNG force majeure.