What is the current WW3 risk level?
As of April 9, 2026, the WW3 Risk Index is 73/100 — Critical. Driven by Iran-Israel war (Day 41), IRGC-contested Hormuz, Russia-Iran intelligence coordination, Finland lifting its nuclear weapons ban, and cancelled Ukraine talks.
Is the Strait of Hormuz closed?
IRGC declared Hormuz contested on March 1, 2026. Lloyd's suspended transit insurance. War-risk premiums: +920%. 20% of global oil passes daily. Not fully closed but extreme risk.
What happened to Khamenei?
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed February 28, 2026 in coordinated US-Israel airstrikes. Son Mojtaba Khamenei named new Supreme Leader. IRGC leadership severely degraded.
Why is oil above $100?
Brent crossed $100/barrel early March. Causes: Hormuz threatens 20% of global supply; Iranian drones struck Gulf infrastructure; Saudi Arabia declared national emergency.
What is the nuclear risk?
Nuclear risk score: 38/100 — Elevated. Iran threatens Dimona reactor strike; Finland lifted nuclear weapons ban; France discussing nuclear umbrella extension. North Korea has gone silent.
How is the Risk Index calculated?
Composite 0–100 score updated every 6h, aggregating ACLED data, strait status, nuclear posture, economic cascades, diplomatic freeze indicators, and AI-parsed news from Reuters, AP, BBC, FT, Al Jazeera, CENTCOM.
What sources does ConflictHub use?
Reuters, AP, BBC, FT, Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya, NPR, Guardian, Haaretz, Middle East Eye, CENTCOM, ACLED, UN, NATO. AI briefings by Claude (Anthropic) every 6 hours.